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Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3383
With the spread of the new coronavirus around the world, governments of various countries have begun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing the risks of spatial spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, and then calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This work analyzes the spread of the new coronavirus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new coronavirus infections and time. In investigating the dynamics of a disease such as COVID-19, its mathematical representation can be constructed at many levels of details, guided by the questions the model tries to help answer. Mathematical sophistication may have to yield to a more pragmatic approach closer to the ability to make predictions that inform public health policies. Background In December 2019 , the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown cause is China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan , since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion of China Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provincial-level administrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became the hardest hit by the new coronavirus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectious disease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments are helpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new coronavirus, and also strive for more time for the clinical trials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virus as soon as possible. Methods According to the original data change law, Establish a Logistic growth model, we collect and compare and integrate the spread of COVID-19 in China, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, record the virus transmission trend among people in each country and the protest measures of relevant government departments. Findings Based on the analysis results of the Logistic model model, the Logistic model has a good fitting effect on the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases, which can bring a better effect to the prediction of the epidemic situation and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Interpretation In the early stage of the epidemic, due to inadequate anti-epidemic measures in various countries, the epidemic situation in various countries spread rapidly. However, with the gradual understanding of COVI D -19, the epidemic situation began to be gradually controlled, thereby retarding growth
Oct 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2768-0207.jbr-20-3568
The Coronavirus emergency represents an epochal challenge for all world health organizations. In these times of profound destabilization of healthcare organizations, become urgent some thoughts on how to deal with the organization and re-engineering process as well as on concepts, relatively new, such as "resilience" and "business continuity". The company management need having to predict, design and plan a profound process of change in their Clinical and Corporate Governance. With the implementation of phases 2 and 3 of management of the pandemic and the coexistence of doctors and citizens with the new Coronavirus, it has become a priority to develop territorial models of assistance to established or suspected Covid patients, starting with the creation of monitoring networks based on the model of the “sentinel” general practitioner. One of the main concerns of Healthcare, since the beginning of the Covid-19 emergency has been to get closer to the citizen-patient. It is therefore necessary to find stimuli to restart with new methods of care, new health and social-health services, moving the current care paradigm for Covid-19 from the hospital to the territory, optimizing the constituent elements of the districts, primary care and general practice in a multidisciplinary approach.
Oct 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3587
The work analyzes the dynamics of transmission of infections by the new coronavirus in twelve European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Romania, Czech Republic, and Portugal, whose data from contagion were obtained by Johns Hopkins University until September 24, 2020. The study confirmed that this new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) surprised all the countries of the world that had to improve their public health policies to confront this disease according to the results obtained from the calculation of the mantissa. Although the countries were able to improve their policies after the first wave of contagion, Spain and France have the highest proportion of cases that stand out significantly with the rest of the countries in the second wave of infections that the world faces again. Likewise, the beginning of the epidemic outbreak was determined, which could help to track the spread of the disease through European countries (not the first case registered in each country), from which it can be inferred that the outbreak begins in Italy and later the rebound begins in Germany, France, and Spain. Within days, it significantly affects Greece and Austria, reaching Denmark, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Croatia. Finally, the number of people who must be vaccinated to counteract the advance of Covid-19 in these European countries was determined based on the calculation of the Effective Reproductive Number, Rt. The number of people that would have to be vaccinated in all these countries to counteract this disease sums up to 206.830.361.
Mar 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-21-3719
Background Since receiving unexplained pneumonia patients at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the new coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread in Wuhan, China and spread to the entire China and some neighboring countries. We establish the dynamics model of infectious diseases and time series model to predict the trend and short-term prediction of the transmission of COVID-19, which will be conducive to the intervention and prevention of COVID-19 by departments at all levels in mainland China and buy more time for clinical trials. Methods Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 in the population and the implemented prevention and control measures, we establish the dynamic models of the six chambers, and establish the time series models based on different mathematical formulas according to the variation law of the original data. Findings The results based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis show that the cumulative diagnosis of pneumonia of COVID-19 in mainland China can reach 36,343 after one week (February 8, 2020), and the number of basic regenerations can reach 4.01. The cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses will reach a peak of 87,701 on March 15, 2020; the number of basic regenerations in Wuhan will reach 4.3, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Wuhan will reach peak at 76,982 on March 20. Whether in Mainland China or Wuhan, both the infection rate and the basic regeneration number of COVID-19 continue to decline, and the results of the sensitivity analysis show that the time it takes for a suspected population to be diagnosed as a confirmed population can have a significant impact on the peak size and duration of the cumulative number of diagnoses. Increased mortality leads to additional cases of pneumonia, while increased cure rates are not sensitive to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. Interpretation Chinese governments at various levels have intervened in many ways to control the epidemic. According to the results of the model analysis, we believe that the emergency intervention measures adopted in the early stage of the epidemic, such as blocking Wuhan, restricting the flow of people in Hubei province, and increasing the support to Wuhan, had a crucial restraining effect on the original spread of the epidemic. It is a very effective prevention and treatment method to continue to increase investment in various medical resources to ensure that suspected patients can be diagnosed and treated in a timely manner. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, we believe that enhanced treatment of the bodies of deceased patients can be effective in ensuring that the bodies themselves and the process do not result in additional viral infections, and once the pneumonia patients with the COVID-19 are cured, the antibodies left in their bodies may prevent them from reinfection COVID-19 for a longer period of time.